Inflation soars ~ Earthquake under Kilauea ~ Surface lava flows spotted ~ Halema’uma’u pit vent lava rises closer to surface

A 3.0 earthquake nine miles below the Kilauea Volcano summit is the first quake above a 2.0 in quite awhile. Likely due to the rapid inflation of magma pressures below the summit, as shown on the deformation graph below.

Such a strong return of magma pressures are manifesting as surface lava at the historical eruption sites in the Pu`u O`o Crater vicinity; visible from the county lava viewing area as a strong molten lava glow high up the mountain after dark. What we are hoping is for a fast return of molten lava into the existing lava tubes that had been delivering it to the Waikupanaha ocean entry 6 ½ miles below Pu`u O`o. I suspect, though, this new eruptive lava will continue as large surface breakouts high up the mountain near to, or just down slope of the Pu`u O`o, then maybe refill the lava tubes. If the tubes do not refill, and inflation continues in the days ahead, we may witness lava river breakouts coming down the pali

Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) has reported in this mornings Kilauea Volcano update some new developments within the active Halema’uma’u Crater pit vent:
“Past 24 hours at Kilauea summit: A river of lava pouring into a deeper opening with churning and spattering lava was visible via webcam through much of the past day. Several times yesterday and overnight, the lava suddenly rose to very high levels, the edges of the ponded surface well outside the frame of the Webcam's view. At its highest stand, the lava surface may have reached as shallow as 120 m below the floor of Halema`uma`u Crater. Each time, after hesitating for several minutes, the lava surface then rapidly dropped back to its previous, lower level. This morning, the lava surface is ponded somewhere in between the earlier high- and low-stands, perhaps 150-160 m below the Halema`uma`u Crater floor. Not surprisingly, strong glow was visible from the Jaggar Museum Overlook.” Here is a live cam capture I grabbed at 10:38 this morning: (Check this cam out after dark tonight)

Inflation of Magma under Kilauea Volcano continues ~ Another High Surf warning posted ~ New Moon today

CURRENT MOON

moon phase info

I wish I were posting new molten lava photos instead of just new deformation graphs… But that may be possible in the days ahead because we are finally seeing a rapid, and so far, steady inflation of magma pressures at both the Kilauea and Pu`u O`o crater areas today:

As I have said in recent posts -- even if molten lava begins erupting from the fissures near Pu`u O`o crater vent, as has been the case for the previous twenty-months, the new lava flow may stay on the surface high up on the mountain inaccessibly out of view until, or unless the new breakouts come down the pali strong enough to continue flowing into view, and/or, the lava reoccupies the longstanding lava tube system. A reoccupation of the tube system would allow the molten lava to retain its heat and much more rapidly advance to the coast and resume at the Waikupanaha ocean entry location.

We my have some of the answers in the next few days.


National Weather Service out of Honolulu has posted High Surf Warnings : ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...

SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU... AND ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI WILL BE TO 20 TO 25 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI WILL BE TO 12 TO 20 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A Magma Pulse Detected

After a very prolonged - three full days - cessation of detectable magma chamber pressure beneath the Kilauea Volcano, a pulse has blipped onto the graphs this morning.This inflation first returned at 2:00 AM this morning and continues. The inflation is only for the Kilauea Caldera region and has not as yet shown up further down the rift at Pu`u O`o.

There are no recent earthquakes associated with this inflationary event.

We will have to continue watching & waiting to see if this inflation continues to rise and if it shows up at the eruption sites around the Pu`u O`o crater vent in the hours and days forward. Even a high spike in both monitor locations will not automatically manifest a return to the surface flows of molten lava down the slopes and into the ocean. After such a long cessation of visible molten lava there can be many changes as to location and direction the reemergence of lava may take.

Again: it’s a watch & wait situation.

Deflation very low and flat-lined = No molten lava activity to watch

Last nights half-voggy sunset was as much molten rock as I was able to find…


The deformation graph below reflects the crazy cycle of magma pressures we are recording this week: low – super high - super low – to flat-lined low.


The degassing plumes at Pu`u O`o and Halema’uma’u continue elevated though. And overlook cams within the Hawaii Volcanoes Park recorded some red glow was still visible at night coming from the pit-vent in the Halema’uma’u Crater; the only visible molten lava colors right now.

Cooler air and some scattered rain showers are sliding across portions of windward Big Island this morning, breaking up our dry voggy week.

High surf warnings are still posted, but are way down from the 30 to 40-foot waves north shores of Oahu forecast yesterday: ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
EVENING...

SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU...AND
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI WILL BE 20 TO 25 FEET TODAY.

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI WILL BE 12 TO 20 FEET TODAY.

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE 8 TO 12 FEET TODAY.

Pele’s Naptime Continues

The aerial photo above taken by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) on January 7th, 2010 looks down upon the Waikupanaha coastline and reveals the amount of active ocean entry lava to be seen there this past week: none; by far the longest cessation in the twenty months it has been flowing there.

The photo below is one I posted two months ago on November 7th, 2009 depicting the relationship of important features on the coastal active lava fields and the Waikupanaha, and shows a normally robust steam & ash plume.(Click on any photo for a larger size)


When will molten lava return to the surface and ocean entry areas?
No one knows. But by looking at this mornings deformation map of magma pressures beneath the Kilauea Volcano, they have flat-lined, or even tweaked lower; much lower than ever recorded since the Waikupanaha lava flow 1st entered the ocean here on March 5th, 2008. Therefore it is very unlikely any resurgence of magma/lava pressure, even if it starts inflating now, will activate molten lava production that can be visually enjoyed in the next twenty-four hours.

Here is a simplified illustration of the magma under Kilauea:Magma pathways beneath Kilauea Volcano
USGS: “Magma rising into Kilauea Volcano first enters a principal storage reservoir beneath its summit caldera. The magma may then erupt at the summit or move through one of two principle pathways (rift zones) beneath the flanks of Kilauea (arrows show direction). This movement of magma down the rift zones causes the summit area to subside, which is recorded by tiltmeters as an inward tilt of the caldera rim. When magma is not moving down one of the rift zones, the summit caldera inflates slowly as shown by an increase in ground tilt, indicating magma is rising into the summit reservoir.”


And a simplified map of the #1 Rift Zone: (My home sits exactly on the center of the east end of this zone; geothermal steam vents on my property)

Pele’s Bell Curve = Volcano Goddess naptime

The most radical deformation – Inflation/Deflation episode I have ever seen on the graphs has just taken place under Kilauea Volcano. The graphs reflect measurements of highly sensitive tiltmeters stationed on Kilauea caldera and the Pu`u O`o crater that reflect the expansion and contraction, or bending of the earth’s surface from magma changes below the two points.

Molten lava was still present as a distant red glow not far below Pu`u O`o eruption site last night, but this will likely diminish substantially because of the currently strong drop in magma/lava pressures.

Halema’uma’u Crater pit vent, with its broiling lava lake, has been the only accessible lava display to be seen this past week; glowing red at night. This too has receded and will likely offer little in the way of a nighttime lava viewing event.

Both the Halema’uma’u and Pu’u O’o craters continue degassing magma at high levels, releasing an average of 1,700 metric tones of sulfur dioxide each day. Unfortunately these toxic fumes are once again being directed across much of the Big Island and beyond by variable breezes. These past two weeks have seen this vog situation repeated more times than is usual compared with previous years.

Below are some snapshot observations of the sulfur dioxide plume directions and levels as recorded this morning.

KILAUEA VISITOR CENTER
Last Updated: 01/10/2010 10:00 AM HST
Current 15-minute average concentration 2.03 ppm
Current SO2 Advisory Level UNHEALTHY
JAGGAR MUSEUM
Last Updated: 01/10/2010 9:45 AM HST
Current 15-minute average concentration 1.64 ppm
Current SO2 Advisory Level UNHEALTHY
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups



In summary:

I do not see much possibility for any active lava viewing to be seen other than the daytime degassing fumes both in the National Park and down the slopes from Pu’u O’o towards the coast as seen from the Hawaii County lava viewing area’s as shown in my photo below. The magma pressures need to return to a strong inflationary stage for any molten lava surface displays to be witnessed. Watch-N-wait
(Click on the image for a larger size)

What goes up ….....

A pronounced raise and fall of magma pressures underneath Kilauea Volcano, as shown on the USGS deformation graph above, has brought our hopes of seeing a return to molten lava flowing strongly into the sea on a ride the same shape as this bell-curve: soaring way up and deflating way down.

Since New Years Day we have seen our usually impressive ocean entry lava flow on the Big Islands southeast shores go from robust to complete stoppage. There has been virtually no molten lava visible at the Hawaii County lava viewing area for week now; the longest cessation in the twenty months that lava flow has been running at the Waikupanaha location. So when the inflation of magma suddenly returned in earnest Thursday the 7th, we fully expected a strong return of molten lava on the surface, followed by a re-filling of the pre-established lava tube system.

We only got the first part. Thursday evening, as magma pressures surged, a strong appearance of lava glow was visible far up the mountain as seen from the coastal viewing area at the end of highway 130. Last night that glow was so bright it was visible from my home 18 miles away… But also last night, around 8:30 PM, a major deflation of magma/lava pressures, as graphed above, robbed us of both the new surface flow lava advancing within view, and our hopes of a strong return of it flowing into the ocean.

That said, there is still a possibility some molten lava reentered the lava tubes and may trickle down to the coast tonight. I say this because there was such a strong resurgence of lava over the last 48-hours and it takes 12 or more hours to reach the sea that some of it may be on the way into the labyrinth of tubes right now. Or maybe I’m just being hopeful…. We will only know for sure by being there to watch for it tonight.

The best volcano show this week has been Pele’s own home: Halema’uma’u Crater within the Kilauea Caldera – Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. That is until the winds shifted and caused dense volcanic haze, or vog, to ruin the viewing fun at the Jaggar Museum. This new deflation may also reduce the strong lava glows inside the Halema’uma’u pit vent that we have enjoyed the past few days.

If anything new develops I will add an update to this posting later.